Shogun is a great fighter, known for ravaging opponents in a hurricane of aggression, twice besting the supposedly unbeatable Machida (once unofficially and once unequivocally). Because of his smashing of Machida and a few others, Shogun has gained somewhat of a Couture-esque reputation for overcoming impossible odds.
He will need every bit of this Couture-esque ability in his first title defense and his most monumental fighting test -- a battle with the seemingly invincible Jon Jones. Like Super Mario after picking up a bouncing star icon, Jones has chainsawed through the lower echelons of the light-heavyweight division, crushing durable but mediocre also-ran competition such as Brandon Vera and Vladimir Matyushenko. Though many idiotic MMA pundits gave Vera and Matyushenko a chance, it should have surprised no one that Jones obliterated these two perrenial jobbers-to-the-stars. What should have garnered notice was the ease with which Jones dispatched Vera, literally shattering his face, with icicle-sharp elbows. Vera is a mediocre fighter at best, but he usually survives the duration of the fight and takes little damage on the route to his typical decision loss. That Jones would have none of Vera's general awkwardness and fight-stalling tactics illustrates Jones' special ability to expertly execute any maneuver and fight plan he chooses.
What makes Jones special is not his much-heralded 2000-inch wingspan or his towering height (after all, if these were the primary attributes of fighting success, the heavyweight title would always be around the waist of Hong-man Choi). What makes Jones a future champion is his ability to execute. When he wants to do something, he pulls it off -- whether it's a takedown, a spinning back elbow, etc.
This ability to execute -- especially the ability to shoot for successful, crushing takedowns from far away -- will cause immense difficulties for any fighter, Shogun included.
Shogun, therefore, must nullify Jones' ability to execute. To do so, Shogun must aggressively press the action, walking through Jones' octopus-style, multi-limbed offense and swarming the praying-mantis-like fighter with punches, kicks, and takedown attempts. This blitzkrieg strategy will rip Jones out of his comfort zone and trap him in a situation he has never experienced -- a real fight. Transported from his typical state of total control to one of survival, Jones might forget strategy and leave himself open for a patent-pended sloppy Shogun knockout punch. In other words, Shogun must employ the same strategy Sonnen did against Silva -- enter the tornado of offense and impose your will anyway, not waiting for an opportunity but making it.
Can Shogun pull off such a strategy? He has a chance because thus far, despite all the hype about Jones' supposedly incredible striking skills, he has yet to knock out anyone in the UFC and, in the stand-up, has significantly hurt only one UFC opponent -- Heath Herring slayer and otherwise terrible jobber to the stars Jake O' Brien. This does not mean that Jones cannot KO or TKO Shogun, but given that Shogun's chin is relatively sturdy, Shogun has a chance to beat Jones by walking through Jones' flurry of flashy kung-fu-film maneuvers and hurting the monstrous beanpole. Another reason for the presumed success of such a strategy for Shogun is that Jones, overconfident in his ginormous reach, often fails to keep his hands up -- a failure that exposed earlier Shogun victim Chuck Liddell to inevitable doom.
However, even if Shogun can walk through the whips for arms and legs attached to Jones, he must contend with the true reason Jones has won most of his recent fights -- his explosive, powerful wrestling ability. Shogun is an expert grappler, but Jones will take him down. The question is whether Shogun will be strong enough to nullify or even submit Jones on the ground. Given that Shogun has been easily taken down by much lesser wrestlers, I think the answer is no.
Therefore, though I'd love to see Shogun pull a Couture, I think instead we'll see the Sting-Vader (American Bash 92) scenario of the up-and-coming monster sawing in half the veteran with a cruise-missile takedown and showering a rapid succession of stalactite elbows onto the cranium of a trapped and shocked Shogun in route to a TKO victory.
Prediction: Jon Jones, TKO, Round Two
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